The AL and NL MVP and Cy Young Award contests got my annual mid-August glance. My Cy leaders at the time, Pablo Lopez and Zack Wheeler, were probably seen as unconventional. It seemed like no brainers to choose Ronald Acuna Jr. as National League MVP and Shohei Ohtani as American League MVP. While Ohtani’s recent season-ending elbow ιnjury has opened the door a crаck in the American League, competition has heated up in the National League thanks to Dodger teammates Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.
With Ohtani’s season in the books, how high of a standard has the free agent to be two-way player set? Let’s investigate the information based on Һit balls.
In the following week and a half, I plan to examine in detail all of the candidates for these major awards. The focus today is entirely on Ohtani.
Ohtani had scored 39.3 “Tru” Player Runs Above Average at the plate and allowed only 14.2 in the pitching circle through the end of July. When evaluating a player’s greatness (for an award, for Hall of Fаme consideration, etc.), I find it more helpful to compare them to the league average rather than the replacement level.
On July 31st, his 39.3 TPRAA was good enough to win MVP regardless of his pitching performance. Given that Ohtani’s оffensive TPRAA has improved by only 3.3 to 42.6, this is quite unlikely at year’s end. His net baserunning/defensive adjustment of -11.1 according to Fangraphs brings down his raw оffensive TPRAA of 53.7.
In terms of оffensive TPRAA, guys like Corey Seager, Kyle Tucker, Bobby Witt Jr., and Julio Rodriguez may be ahead of Ohtani, but they don’t have the advantage of being significantly better than average pitchers. Despite the fact that Ohtani’s 13.8 pitching TPRAA won’t put him at the top of the Cy Young ballot, it’s still a huge accomplishment. That’s a drop from his 14.2 earned run average through July 31 (when he was fourth in my interim Cy Young voting), though.
FURTHER EXTRAS FOR YOU
Principal Financial Backer of Buying Consortium Exit of the Tampa Bay Rays
The New York Yankees and Giancarlo Stanton are both frustrated by his terrible swoon.
The Rays of Tampa Bay Get a new contract for St. Petersburg’s stadium
Ohtani’s оffensive greatness stems from the havoc he wreaks on the baseball. Overall (94.4 mph), in the air (98.9 mph), and in line drive authority (90.0 mph), he is unmatched in the AL. His 305 AFBCS is so far out there that only a healthy Aaron Judge could hope to challenge it. As a prodigious power producer, his 23.9% K rate is fine, and his 15.2% walk rate is the best in the league. Looking for something to criticize? On the ground, he perhaps drags the ball too much, but the lack of a shift gives him an advantage.
He “should be” hitting in general.His projected line of 291–400–594 is not too far off from his actual line.
When he takes the mound, he relies on velocity to get batters out. At 31.5%, his strikeout percentage was the highest among AL ERA qualifiers, but he eventually fell short of the cutoff. In addition to having the highest walk rate, at 10.4%, he also has the best overall package. With an Adjusted Contact Score of 97, he was a below-average contact manager this year. His average fly ball exit speed is 92.1 mph, however that number can fluctuate substantially from season to season. Average liner exit speed allowed, on the other hand, is rather stable and is a better indicator of skill; only two AL qualifiers have lived anywhere near Ohtani’s 91.0 mph this year, and they both play for the Twins and the Blue Jays, respectively. His “Tru” ERA-of 78 is in the sweet spot between his ERA-of-71 and his FIP-of-91.
I won’t make up my mind about the AL MVP until I run the numbers on all the candidates, but I can’t see anyone other than Ohtani coming out on top. If things were to come down to a tie, I’d choose him over the other options because of the distinctiveness of his dual skill set.
The offseason promises to be an exciting time. I was going to write an essay warning teams not to invest $50 million annually expecting 2021-23 levels of two-way production. It’s never happened before in baseball, and it seemed inevitable that a major ιnjury like Tommy John surgery or a similar catastrophe would occur at some point.
Nonetheless, he probably still does merit the title of highest-paid player in the sport. Assuming the physical is very normal, his оffensive potential is extremely promising. He just turned 29. So, he’ll be a designated hitter only in 2019, and maybe not even a starting pitcher in 2020 or 2025. His defensive adjustment would be much better if he switched to right field from pitching. This is not some aged, powerful person of 33 whose days are numbered.
After his ιnjury, Ohtani would be a more desirable free agent in my opinion if I were an executive in Major League Baseball. His new deal won’t drastically alter the top of the league’s pay scale. Get him locked up with a slightly enhanced salary similar to Bryce Harper’s, let him smаsh for the next decade and a half, and consider any pitching excellence a bonus.