MESSA, Arizona This season, there was less drama than usual in the Rookie of the Year competitions. The only true mystery surrounding the Jackie Robinson Award nominees, which will be announced on Monday, is whether Gunnar Henderson and Colin Carroll will receive a unanimous vote.
Long-term potential for rookies
Carroll and Henderson not only had the best rookie performances in 2023, but they also outperformed every other player in terms of projected career value—a project we have been working on for the past nine seasons. Nothing that MLB Pipeline does more than our long-term rookie rankings every year incites fans who can’t tell the difference between projections for the future and the present.
Corey Seager vs. Alex Bregman (2016), Ronald Acuña Jr. vs. Juan Soto vs. Shohei Ohtani (2018), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Fernando Tatis Jr. (2019), and Julio Rodriguez vs. Adley Rutschman (2022) are just a few of the close calls for the top slot over the years. In the same spirit, Carroll v. Henderson is an intriguing debate.
Previous rankings: 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022
Carroll is the first rookie in MLB history to combine 25 home runs with 50 steals. He is also one of the fastest players in the league. Henderson is a better infielder at shortstop or third base who possesses greater power and defensive value. Rookies, they were both 22 years old.
Henderson is the player to call here because, while remaining on the ground, he should be able to provide an offensive output comparable to Carroll’s, though we won’t know for sure for at least ten more years.
We have taken into account historical performance, current year performance, and future projections in our rankings below. We take it into account, noting each player’s seasonal age as of July 1 in parenthesis, and take into account the age at which a player enters the big leagues and becomes a star, which corresponds substantially with his future value. It also matters that position players are less erratic than pitchers.
Only players who have completed 130 at-bats, 50 innings, or 45 days of active service in the Major Leagues are included in our list after they were promoted from rookie status.Even though Evan Carter helped the Rangers win the World Series and had a stellar playoffs, he is still considered a rookie and a prospect. So do other superstars who were close to breaking the rookie limits, such Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn, Reds third baseman Noelvi Marte, and Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser.
1. Gunnar Henderson, 3B/SS, Orioles (age 22)MLB Pipeline’s top-ranked prospect entering the season, Henderson led all rookies with 28 homers. The only left-side infielders to hit more as rookies in the last five decades were Ryan Braun (34 in 2007) and Nomar Garciaparra (30 in 1997).
Henderson wins AL ROY
2. Corbin Carroll, OF, D-backs (age 22)In addition to his historic 25-homer, 54-steal season, Carroll led the D-backs to their second World Series appearance in franchise history.
Corbin Carroll wins NL ROY
3. Eury Pérez, RHP, Marlins (age 20)Miami’s best pitching prospect since the late José Fernández, Pérez offers a unique combination of size (6-foot-8), stuff and precocious polish. He reached the Majors at the same age as Fernández and averaged more strikeouts per nine innings (10.6 vs. 9.7) as a rookie.
4. Jordan Walker, OF, Cardinals (age 21)Though he got sent down for five weeks in late April, Walker finished strong and became just the second rookie in Cardinals history age 21 or younger to hit 16 homers, joining Albert Pujols (37 in 2001).
5. Francisco Álvarez, C, Mets (age 21)Not only did Alvarez become just the sixth rookie catcher to bash 25 homers, he was much better than expected behind the plate and graded as one of baseball’s best framers.
6. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Orioles (age 23)After sporting a 7.35 ERA in his first 10 big league starts, Rodriguez reclaimed his command in Triple-A and showed a dominant changeup and slider while posting a 2.58 ERA over his last 13 outings with Baltimore.
Grayson Rodriguez K’s seven
7. Elly De La Cruz, SS/3B, Reds (age 21) Not a single player on our list has a higher ceiling or louder tools than de la Cruz, who has serious swing-and-miss problems despite having more arm strength and speed than anyone in the Majors.
8. Royce Lewis, 3B, Twins (age 24)Injuries delayed his arrival in Minnesota, but Lewis showed why he was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 Draft, impacting the game at the plate, on the bases and at the hot corner before homering four times in six playoff games.
9. Anthony Volpe, SS, Yankees (age 22)While his .666 OPS may have been underwhelming, Volpe became the second rookie shortstop to win a Gold Glove (joining Jeremy Peña) and the third with a 20-20 season (following Garciaparra and Bobby Witt Jr.).
10. Josh Jung, 3B, Rangers (age 25)Another player who had been slowed by injuries, Jung became the first rookie to make the All-Star Game and win a World Series since Hideki Okajima in 2007.
Josh Jung’s three-hit night
11. Triston Casas, 1B, Red Sox (age 23)Casas combines hitting ability, power and patience at first base, and his 1.034 OPS after the All-Star break was the fourth-best in baseball (min. 200 plate appearances) behind Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson and Acuña Jr.
12. Bobby Miller, RHP, Dodgers (age 24)Miller’s fastball, changeup and curveball all played among the best in baseball, giving him an arsenal that could make him the Dodgers’ next ace.
13. Taj Bradley, RHP, Rays (age 22)Bradley’s combination of stuff and strikes resulted in the best strikeout rate (11.1 per nine innings) and third-best K/BB ratio (3.3) among rookies (min. 100 innings), though he did get hit harder than expected.
14. Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Rockies (age 21)A Gold Glove finalist, Tovar has bat-to-ball skills and some sneaky pop but undermined them both by losing his discipline at the plate. Time is still on his side because he’s one of the youngest players on this list.
Ezequiel Tovar’s three-hit day
15. Logan O’Hoppe, C, Angels (age 23)A torn labrum in his left shoulder limited O’Hoppe to 182 at-bats, but among catchers with at least as many trips to the plate as a rookie, his home run percentage (8 percent) ranks fourth all-time behind Gary Sánchez (2016), Rudy York (1937) and Will Smith (2019).
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